Just a few days ago we took note of the first reputable poll ever to have identified a clear majority of Scots in favor of Scottish independence (Bletherskite September 3). Our takeaway, like most others, was well, that is very interesting and definitely worth watching. We asked questions like, is it an aberration that will be erased by future polling? Or are Scottish views toward Scottish independence from the United Kingdom shifting away from the Union?
Today a second poll was released, showing similar results as last week’s Ipsos – Mori poll. Significantly, the TNS poll utilized a different approach and methodology than the Ipsos – Mori poll which adds encouragement to the independence movement. One commentator has labeled the effect of this fresh TNS poll as earth shaking (“Political earthquake as TNS agrees with Ipsos-Mori : there is now a majority for independence” ).
Here are the big numbers: Favor Independence? 47% Yes, 42% No, 11% Undecided. Excluding those who are undecided, the poll puts the Yes side ahead by 53% to 47%. Recall that last week’s Ipsos – Mori poll was remarkable in that its finding of 53% in support of Scottish independence was inclusive of the undecided vote, which was a very low 3% in that poll. Is Scotland changing its mind regarding independence? Still far too early to say but we now have a strengthening argument that it is.
More detailed poll results will be worthy of a peek as they appear. Questions such as “why” did you vote “No” a year ago but are ready to vote “Yes” today become the focus of analysis. The various age brackets all appear to remain voting in blocks similarly to the vote taken in 2014 (generally, the younger the voter the more likely she is pro-Indy). Are the new “Yes” supporters distributed across the age spectrum of Scotland or have recent events convinced more young or more senior Scots to change their mind on this most fundamental constitutional question?
Then there is geography. Where do the new “Yes” supporters live? The TNS poll appears to confirm that Glasgow remains very strongly pro-Indy but what about the rest of Scotland? Many questions. More analysis …
As always, these polls offer insights that go beyond the independence question. For a good breakdown of some of the other aspects of the TNS poll, check out the STV News analysis HERE.
Stay tuned!